I like the Twins here as Duensing has been great at home this year with an overall 1.30 ERA and even better as a starter giving up just 1 ER over 23.2 IP in three home starts. Duesning has success against the Royals and the Twins need him as the Central race heats up. He'll oppose Greinke who hasn't been the same this year. Greinke is just 1-10 in his last 11 vs. the Twins and he's given up 16 ER in 2010 over 14 IP to the Twins. Twins are hot right now with a .320 average 10.41 runs per 9 vs. RHP in their last 5 overall and 8.32 overall average. They hit righties better and they have hit Greinke hard many times over their career. Royals on the other hand have not been hitting the ball and have a .248 average scoring just 3.19 runs per 9 on the road this year vs. LHP. In fact they are just 7-26 in their last 33 road games vs. a LH starter. Greinke is 6-22 in his last 28 as a dog +110 to +150.
You'd expect the Cardinals to be heavier favorites, with Garcia on the mount, but the fact of the matter is they haven't hit. They face a lefty in Capuono and they've hit lefties even worst with a .159 average and 1.04 runs per 9 in their last 10 games overall. Garcia is 7-3 with a 3.15 ERA on the road and has only given up 2 ER vs. the Brewers in 4 starts this year. The under is 15-6 in GArcia's last 21 starts as a favorite and the under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings at MIlwaukee.
